OTCQX:BGMZF - Post by User
Comment by
yaponskion Jul 19, 2013 1:11am
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Post# 21617257
RE:BASHERS....stay in focus here and come after my hypotheses with logic!
RE:BASHERS....stay in focus here and come after my hypotheses with logic!roller,
You like logic so here is some logic for you to consider. Suppose I am a large investor looking to buy gold equities at rock bottom value pricing.
Lets suppose I consider BGM based on your pumps. First things first, I woudl say, there isn't much Indicated gold and zero Measured.
Ok. You say, you have to look at big picture.
So, lets add in Inferred, that gets it up to 5M oz. Still pretty small.
Ok you say. You have to consider Potential. That moves needle to 30M oz.
So, small problem. I don't know how to value potential oz? If Proven + Probable + Measured + Indicated from a producing mine is going for upder $5 per oz. what are you going to price your potential at? 50 cents? 10 cents? Give me a number with supporting rational applicable to current market.
You say, but I don't believe you can buy PP + MI at $5 an oz from a producing mine.
I say. Well you must be poorly informed pumper. Look at Allied Nevada. They have 50M oz AuEq (gold + silver) of which 70% is in PP + MI category in brown field district in Nevada. ANV has operating mine producing close to 50K ounces a quarter (bit under recently but moving to 600K per year in 3 years). Company has retained earnings meaing they have fully recovered all exploration costs. And today company is priced at very roughly $3 EV per ounce AuEq. And note, AuEq ounces are from just gold and silver roughly 2/3 gold and 1/3 silver. I think they might do another financing I hope to get big time at under $5 per ounce in situ.
So you are right. It is war out there. But we currently are in down trend and it stays in down trend until it isn't down trending. Right now producers are away cheaper than explorers were 18 months ago. I would consider BGM as a lotto ticket maybe, if there was a PP at say 5 cents per unit and if the unit had a full warrant good for 5 years at say 10 cents. But it has to have the warrant. No warrant, then I'd want to drop the unit price to 2.5 cents.
This is just what it is today and what is likely to be tomorrow. Sure, if FC had of brough 5 Moz to market in 2009 / 2010 / 2011 you might well have had bids at $150 per ounce in situ. But all CEOs who made such offers have been long since fired.
What it is.