Goldman Sachs view on potashThis financial blood sucking vampire sees potash prices hitting $520 in 2015/2017! Perfect timing!
Goldman Sachs weighs in on potash, Cerium remains as most in demand rare earth element
Posted on July 25, 2013 by Robin Bromby
Potash producers will maintain their discipline and good margins despite falling crop prices. And, as for rare earths, the greatest market will — notwithstanding patterns of growth — still be in the lights but it will be the heavies that make more money. These are among the predictions in a new report from Goldman Sachs, Mining Commodities: The focus shifts to the supply side.
The overall message in the report is that, as demand growth remains lacklustre, and several commodity markets move into surplus, the timing and scale of future supply response becomes the main decider as to when prices make their recovery. On the other hand, Goldman thinks the present cycle is near its bottom and some prices will have overshot on the downside. This report also contains comments on potash and rare earths.
POTASH: In the short term, Goldman expects attempts by producers to exercise their bargaining power to try and secure higher prices will be met with strong push-back from buyers against a backdrop of a strong harvest, rising grain stocks and soft crop prices.
Looking beyond the current crop cycle, the analysts expect prices to average $520/tonne over 2015-17, equivalent to a ~70% premium over the estimated $300/tonne estimate of marginal production costs. Longer term, the emergence of new players is seen as driving prices to converge around $475/tonne.
But potash has done not too badly.
Historically, as Goldman points out, food prices have been strongly correlated with fertilizer prices Yet, since 2000, the IMF Food Index has risen by 177% while potash prices rose by 273%. The index surged at the beginning of 2008, helping to spark the big rally in potash prices that year. Then the GFC saw food prices come off, with potash following back down.
However, it’s the discipline of the industry which has brought about such high potash margins in recent years and Goldman believes that will hold until 2020. After all, the potash industry has high barriers to entry with high capital costs at about $1,000/tonne for new production capacity; also just three countries account for 60% of global production.
As for demand, emerging markets increasingly dominate the scene. China uses 20% of the world’s output of potash, followed by Brazil with 15% and India 8%. By contrast, the U.S. consumes 15%, the European Union 11%, and with the remainder split among the rest of the world.
- See more at: https://investorintel.com/rare-earth-intel/goldman-sachs-weighs-in-on-potash-rare-earths/#sthash.4pYzhYgc.dpuf