TSXV:AAA.P - Post by User
Post by
edxon Jul 30, 2013 11:05pm
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Post# 21640488
Relax...
Relax...Today's news isn't a game-changer - Jansen is the game-changer if it gets approved.
Uralkali is trying to kill Jansen and other greenfield/brownfield expansion for their (and the industry's) long-term benefit. That's it. Ukralkali does not benefit financially in a post-cartel world where everybody has depressed margins. If they did, they would have bailed on BPC a long time ago, especially when prices were sky-high and busting quotas would have given them an actual financial gain.
However, if Jansen is approved and much of the supply-side expansion stil on the books goes through, Uralkali will suffer more and longer because once the billions are invested, companies will operate on break-even margins if they have to hoping for "better times". Better to snuff out that potential supply before the investment is made.
This action as stated would be a net-benefit for Allana, who will not produce until this whole episode is long forgotten. And those who are concerned about Allana's financing, don't be. We are not going to get the bulk of our financing from entities whose primary motive is profit.
Waaay back when I first invested in AAA, I thought the market was heading for over-supply. You can check out my post history where one of my very first ever Stockhouse posts is on this board asking about the supply/demand outlook. Despite those concerns, I invested anyways, because Allana has so many unique advantages over any rival juniors and.. once it gets into production, advantages over rival producers that it will do fine as long as potash remains the fertilizer of choice. If some new technology comes along rendering potash obsolete, then all of us with money invested here are f'ed. Otherwise, Allana will be fine.
So relax. Those of you freaking out right now should probably not invest in the junior resource space.