OTCPK:PTAUF - Post by User
Post by
strelioffon Jul 31, 2013 12:01pm
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Post# 21641542
Basic Math with a Calculator = + $100 per tonne discount is being used
Basic Math with a Calculator = + $100 per tonne discount is being usedOwn a calculator?
Perhaps if everyone pulled them out they would comprehend somewhere between window dressing month end and basic math the downside is priced but common sense is not.
If you pulled it out you would comprehend what downside which is $80 per tonne.(excluding BHP competition and buyback). Factor existing contracts, buyback and a BHP into the equation than $110 per tonne discount on existing contracts is priced in already
A Cheap Calculator vs. Your Expensive imagination
$50 per tonne price reduction = $5
$75 per tonne price reduction = $7.50
$100 per tonne reduction = $10
Calculate
Void of existing contracts and reprice at $300 per tonne
2 billion dollar buyback
5 billion dollar market cap already lost
14 billion BHP compeititor wiped out
Of course I bought today because $1 + $1 = does not equal $0.50
Don't take my word for it go to the horsesmouth
https://www.uralkali.com/press_center/company_news/item13095/
And their outlook / market report
https://www.uralkali.com/press_center/market_news/
In Europe, shipments were delayed in Q2 because of the bad
weather, but European NPK demand has started picking up since
mid-April. Prices remained in the range of €330-360 per tonne CIF.
There is currently a lack of activity in the market as the application
season has come to a close and buyers are now likely to return to
the market in August. Overall, European demand is expected to stay
close to its traditional volumes in 2013.
In the US, adverse weather conditions resulted in a very slow
planting progress for soybeans and corn in Q2. The delayed start
to the season affected potash use. Prices stayed at USD 405-410/
st fob NOLA, and USD 445-450/st in the Corn Belt. North American
potash producer inventories decreased 4.6% m-o-m in May to
2.89 million tonnes. Domestic sales in May surged 61% from the
previous month to 1.06 million tonnes and were up 59% y-o-y.
Potash deliveries to the US are expected to be strong throughout
H2 2013, fuelled by the need to restore depleted dealer inventories
in preparation for the fall season.
In China, sales of potash have come to the seasonal lull from late
April. Deliveries of volumes under H1 contracts are coming to an
end. Domestic prices are currently in the range of RMB 2,400-2,500
per tonne (USD 392-408 per tonne) ex-port warehouse for standard
potash. According to the customs statistics, China imported 2.67
million tonnes in the first four months of 2013 compared to 2.25
million tonnes for the same period last year. China’s market is
expected to stand at about 10.5-11.0 million tonnes for 2013.
In Southeast Asia, demand has picked up as a number of fertiliser
tenders were held by palm oil plantations. While palm oil prices are
lower this year compared to 2012, this is not going to filter through
to weaker potash prices, according to the importers. Plantation
owners are expected to absorb a 10% fall in palm oil prices