GREY:SGLRF - Post by User
Post by
qwqwon Aug 08, 2013 10:38am
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Post# 21656477
Probability
Probability For some strange reason people have trouble with probability.
If a coin toss results in 10 heads in a row (assuming no rigging).
What are the odds of the next toss being tails? Some people
will say there's a greater chance of tails because of too many
previous heads??????????? That must be a magic coin if it
remembers the previous tosses.The odds are always 50/50.
Sometimes 10 heads,sometimes 10 tails,but mostly close to
half and half.
On the old TV game show "Lets make a deal" the biggest winner
of the day was able to exchange their winnings for hopefully a
better prize behind one of three doors.They chose one and
the host revealed one of the others as being empty and asked
if they were willing to switch with the one leftover.Hardly anyone
made the switch????????????? By switching,their odds of winning
would've increased by 50%. Yet people couldn't figure it out.
Why the increase chance of winning? At the start there were 3
options or 1 in 3 chance of winning.When one door was revealed
that made 2 options or a 1 in 2 chance of winning, but only if you
switched.
If everyone played the odds Vegas would be empty.Only cheaters
and card counters have a chance to beat the house in the long run.
A couple years back I heard about a gambler who was on a serious
winning streak.His winnings the previous year were $50 mil????????
Was he cheating or card counting or both?
Just plain dumb luck.He gave it all back the next year??????????