PTA ValuationFACTS:
- Per PXT Q2 release and CC, LM production is between 11,500bopd and 12,000bopd. Assume 11,750 for calculation.
- LC-1 to be on stream by end of Q3, LC as well if successful.
- Balay at about 150bopd NET
- Exploration wells to be drilled this year La Guira (1-2 months according to PXT), Rumi (Q3/4?), etc.
Current and iminent production:
- LM: 5,875 bopd
- LC 1: 700 bopd (not incl gas):
- Balay: 150 bopd
TOTAL: 6,725 bopd net
Possible Near term additions:
-LC2: anopther 700 bopd net
-LM development: 2+ wells at +/- 1,500 bopd per well gross. Conservative 1,500 bopd net potential additon.
- Curirara LT test, La Guira (fast tie-in to existing facilites)
TOTAL POTENTIAL ADDITIONS: 2,200 bopd +
Total Potential Exit Rate 2013: approx 9,000 bopd.
C&C takeover metrics were about $57K/bopd x 9,000 = $500M/600M sh = 0.83.
Yes, lower reserves will reduce that significantly ... but IMO there is lots of additional reserves coming from LM appraisal successes and technical revisions from better reseroir performance.
There will also be large additions from Curirara ... if you check the well location, it is well away from the crest and looks to almost be on the edge of the 3D mapper structure. i.e later wells may well produce better and have larger oil columns.
Ok, so lets use only $40K per flowing barrell for the lower reserves.
$40K x 9,000 bopd = $360M
$360M/700M sh (fully diluted in the money) = 0.52/sh.
I firmly believe 0.50/sh is an achievable buyout target based on current dev/appraisal only. Exploration successes would add incrementally.
Also, keep your eye on El Porton, they will farm this out and IMO try to get the rest of the Curiara pie, which is worth way more than the market acknowledging. It could be a 40mm bbls recoverable pool.