OTCPK:WSRLF - Post by User
Comment by
canadafoxon Aug 24, 2013 7:10am
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Post# 21694886
RE:Bear-scenario valuation
RE:Bear-scenario valuationTP; The key first question is whether the K-2 LKO is still valid. That is what the additional K-3 tests are seeking to prove and in addition the deliverability of the shallower porous Oligocene at Kurdamir. If the existing LKO is validated then Kurdamir should have a minimum of say 400 MM bbls. Moving to Garmian; B-1 is much less certain today than it was but it still has a fairly high CofS relative to a typical exploration well. H-1 is drilling near to S-1 and so the pressure regimes and reservoir characteristics reflect an appraisal risk rather than exploration; i.e. low. Sarqala / Hasira should move towards 100 - 300 MM bbls contingent after H-1. Qulijan and Chwar are regarded as having very reasonable CofS and there are many more prospects in the block. It would be extremely unfortunate even with regard to the current K-3 'shock' that WZR would not have a minimum of 500 MM bbls of contingent resources at end-2013 / early-2014. This would have a value to WZR of somewhere between C$1 Bn - C$2 Bn fully discounted at NPV10 and inclusive of WI if exports resume in the near-term as expected.
MC is around C$500m today...