RBC Capital Markets recent research report summaryRBC Estimates
FY Dec 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E
Prod. (mboe/d) 5 11 20 25
Prev. 12
CFPS - Basic 0.35 0.85 1.59 1.89
Prev. 1.01 1.56 1.86
P/CFPS 5.0x 2.1x 1.1x 0.9x
EPS (Op) - Basic 0.36 0.57 1.20 1.37
Prev. 0.65 1.16 1.34
P/E 4.9x 3.1x 1.5x 1.3x
Analysts are by nature conservative and even with a slight reduction in their actual production for this year, look at the CFPS and EPS and the multiples that result from these in 2014 and 2015. also RBC calculates Ithaca's sum of the parts NAV at $3.72 and CORE NAV at $3.23. They calculate that the company will have net debt of just $125 million by the end of next year and have cash on hand of $340 million by year end 2015 with zero debt. They will be generating a whopping $900 million of FREE cash flow in 2014/15 to achieve this spectacular balance sheet. their current balance sheet condition is really quite good as well with a net debt to equity of 0.46 which is really low for an oil and gas E&P. They also indicate that if they are fortunate to have a measure of success in the upcoming former Valiant exploration and appraisal wells it would increase their CORE NAV by at least 50% from the $3.23 to just under $5.00.
Ithaca operates some of the 11 fields but is a partner in most and as a result, they are not in control of what takes place wrt production interruptions so that is precisely why the market should be viewing them as a highly production de-risked small mid cap producer and give them some credit for this. IF they end up a little under guidance on production so what. They are still generating huge cash flows and earnings as indicated by the above summary.
Folks the risk reward is very heavily in favour of Ithaca at this point in time with the share price still under $2.00 Remember by low....NOT high!