Re: August ProductionI did a quick estimate assuming 26 days at the July average production rate of 67,000 b/d and 5 days at 320,000 b/d (Syncrude) and that gives an average for COS for August of 75,100 b/d, which is close to what they posted. Hopefully they can maintain 320kb/d for the rest of the year.
I also did a preliminary cash flow (CF) estimate using 300 kb/d (Syncrude) and $111/barrel for September. The Q3 CF will be about 80¢/shr and the capex plus operating expenses will be about 61¢/shr leaving a free cash flow of 19¢/shr. If I am close on the estimates, this means COS will use 16¢/shr from their cash stash to pay the 35¢ divy, or approximately $75 M. At that rate they would only need $375M from the remaining $1.0B they will have at the end of Q3/13 to get to the end of Q4/14.
Provided oil can stay in the $100 range and they can produce at 300 kb/d from here on in, we should be in good shape for a nice move up next year.
Namsoc