Teranet house price indexTeranet has the most accurate method for looking at house prices. Prices are flattening. IMO the best thing for HCG would be flat prices for a few years letting inflation maintain affordability by offsetting rising mortgage rates in the years ahead.
12-MONTH HOME PRICE INFLATION AT 2.3% IN AUGUST
The Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ rose to an all-time high in August, as did the indexes of three of the 11 metropolitan markets covered in the index: Hamilton, Toronto and Ottawa-Gatineau. However, the composite index was up only 2.3% from a year earlier. Though this was an acceleration from July, the 12-month gains in the five months ending in August were the smallest since November 2009. By way of comparison, the Case-Shiller home price index of 20 U.S. metropolitan markets was up 12.0% from a year earlier in June (the latest available reading). In Canada, the price rise over the 12 months ending in August exceeded the cross-country average in six of the 11 markets: Calgary (6.5%), Hamilton (5.5%), Toronto (3.8%), Quebec City (3.5%), Edmonton (2.6%) and Winnipeg (2.6%). It lagged the average in Montreal (0.7%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.3%). Prices were down from a year earlier for a sixth straight month in Victoria (−2.5%), for a 13th straight month in Vancouver (−0.1%) and for the first time since September 1996 in Halifax (−0.6%).
The August composite index was up 0.6% from the month before. Though this rise may seem substantial, it is somewhat below the seasonal norm. In 15 years of index data collection, the average August gain has been 0.8%. This year's August prices were up from July in six of the 11 markets surveyed. The gain exceeded the national average in five markets: Toronto (1.2%), Calgary (1.0%%), Victoria and Hamilton (0.8%) and Vancouver (0.7%). It lagged the average in Ottawa-Gatineau (0.2%). In five markets, the most since May, prices were down from the month before: Edmonton (−0.2%), Winnipeg (−0.2%), Montreal (−0.3%), Quebec City (−0.9%) and Halifax (−1.6%).