GREY:TRIAF - Post by User
Post by
shambano1on Sep 17, 2013 8:34am
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Post# 21744944
takeover metrics
takeover metricsbased on q2 numbers, average produciton of 4147, exit debt of 56.4 million, and a conservative value of 10 million for undeveloped land, they sold TOL for approximately 60,000 per flowing barrel.
Considering they are 60% or more oil andf liquids and they have very good netbacks, 60,000 seems very low. If we change this number to 100,000 per flwoing barrel we get 5.26 per share.
even if we change this number to 80,000 per flwoing barrel we get 4.08 which is still over 25% higher than the current offer.
I just can't see this deal being completed at these metrics unless they are not telling us something related to current produciton and or reserves.
even based on 2012 P&P reserves of 20.2 million and that's assuming they have zero reserves growth in 2013, we are worth over 3.50 at conservative 12 per barrel of reserves.
something very smelly here and I can't see Lightstream tendering, and I will vote against this deal.
if there's nothing sinister going on relating to current produciton, watering out of wells, and if q3 exploraiton is on track, then why sell this company??
this whole deal makes no sense to me???