OTCPK:LLEN - Post by User
Comment by
Harcher2000on Sep 17, 2013 8:28pm
195 Views
Post# 21747101
RE:RE:RE:Update will come later...FYI
RE:RE:RE:Update will come later...FYI
I don't like writing it since I am still long. It's the first time I have wrote anything close to being negative.Just being honest. Lee really seenms to make LLEN an easy target for the shorts with some of the things he does.
They still have a real business that is growing and and is worth more than the stock trades at right now. I won't be selling at these levels as long as the mines continue to produce and they have the large customers to sell to like they do now. I think the three key things to help determine whether to keep holding on is 1) The 1M plus mine purchase. It sounded like it should happen towards the end of the year at the latest. The evaluations have been done. They are waiting towards the end of the year when money gets tight for these mines and they are willing to sell assets at a better price in order to get their hands on cash. 2) The TDR. They said that they will be filing within thirty days. I am under the assumption that there may not be a big press release when the 2013 review has been wrapped up but I may be wrong. I believe we will see a release about the TDR filing when they pull the trigger. 3) The dividend is instated. I am still on the fence with the dividend because you would think they could get a better return reinvesting the money or buying back shares and make the share we already own more valueable. However, they said they were going to do this for the TDR so I am watching to see if they follow through.
One thing I have not mentioned yet is Lee's idea of seeling coal to Taiwan. He said he has developed relationships theire to open that market. He said he could sell Taiwan 30M tons per year. As with anything he says, actions speak louder than words.
It wouldn't supprise me to see Lee use the producing mines to trade up to larger mines outside of Guzhou and Yunnan. Seems to be his MO. He did that with the smaller mines he used to have. That may not be such a bad thing if it did happen. We saw the results with the Union Energy mines. They have been very positive (minus out the negative cash flow due to the reinvestment into the mines build-out).