NGC (BUY) - Positive update to the Bissett Creek BFSNorthern Graphite (BUY) - Positive update to the Bissett Creek Feasibility Study
NGC (C$0.8, TP C$1.70) Mkt Cap C$40.7m
The headlines from the company’s revised feasibility study, which were released yesterday afternoon, made for very positive reading in our view. Based on the larger, higher grade resource estimate published in May, the new plan is founded upon a 28Mt reserve (+48.9% on the 2012 study), throughput of 2,670t/day (+16.1%) and production of 20.8kt (+30.8%) of high grade concentrate over a 28 year (+21.7%) life of mine. While the throughput and production rates see double-digit increases, capex including contingency has actually reduced (-1.3%) to $101.6m and cash operating costs lowered by 17.9% to $795/t. This all feeds into a pre-tax NPV of $129.9m, some 81% higher than the figure for the original mine plan. This is all the more impressive as the latest economics have been drawn up using an US$1,800/t weighted average graphite concentrate price, some 14.3% lower than assumed in the 2012 study as prices have continued to ease in the interim. After tax NPV is 90% higher at $89.3m. In our view, Bissett Creek is now a substantially derisked project and certainly one of the most advanced and deliverable projects in the current crop.
We believe the investment case for NGC has strengthened significantly follow yesterday's news and the recent key permit approval. With the NPV (post tax) equating to C$1.82/share, or 2.2x the current share price, there is clear upside in this play. We reiterate our BUY recommendation and TP of C$1.70.
See attached the CFE Morning Equity Note which contains the contributing analysts summaries and the required FCA regulatory disclaimers / disclosures.
Please note that theCFE Research publications are also available on Bloomberg – CFEU <go>, Capital IQ, FACTSET and Thomson Reuters.
Please note our new address is:
One Churchill Place, 20thFloor, Canary Wharf,
London, E14 5RB