Coniagas Battery Metals Inc. T.COS

RE:RE:Q3 Cash Flow and Earnings Estimate

[namsoc]

Nelson, thanks for pointing out that the FX (loss) gain for the long term debt is relative to the previous quarter and not the absolute value.  To confirm the FX loss/gain numbers given in the previous COS quarterly reports I have put together the following table.  I used the Bank of Canada's quarterly closing FX values and estimated COS's US$ denominated debt to be $1803M.  The numbers are within $1M of the values in the last three COS quarterly reports.  Since COS paid back $300M in August, I reduced their long term debt to $1503M for Q3-13.  The drop in FX rate and $300M paid back results in a FX gain of closer to $48M. 
 
As for the FX gain/loss on the “other”, which you note has minimal explanation, I have noticed that it is typically between 1/3 and 1/5 of the long term debt and of the opposite sign.   Using the 1/3 value, that would result in a loss of $16M, for an overall net gain of $32M.  This then would give an earnings estimate for Q3 of around 55¢.  
 
Further comments/insights are welcome.
 
Long Term Debt Analysis
                                              Debt             Debt          Q over Q     Quarterly
                        FX                 US $           CDN $            Diff            Change
Dec-12        0.9949           1,803            1,794               -9                
Mar-13        1.0160           1,803            1,832               29                38
Jun-13        1.0518           1,803            1,896               93                65
Sep-13        1.0303           1,503            1,549              46               -48

Namsoc