GREY:ARGEF - Post by User
Comment by
stocksportson Oct 09, 2013 2:58pm
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Post# 21804121
RE:Bfs numbers
RE:Bfs numbersThe numbers are quite impressive. To figure out how the NPV method works is not sufficient on this board. Google it and you get an idea of the numbers. In my first quick shot they used TIO2 price of roughly $3.500/t (comparing revenues of 4,365.6 mio. in 25 years life of project and capacity of 50.000t p.a. in the NR) and OPEX of roughly $1.500/t (comparing OPEX of $1,854.4 mio.in 25 years life of project and capacity of 50.000t p.a. in the NR). In total we see a margin of TIO2 pigment produciton of $ 2.000/t. I think this numbver gives us all a feeling how profitable the process is. If you add the revenues of By-products of roughly $450/t (comparing revenues of $ 567,2 mio.in 25 years life of project and capacity of 50.000t p.a. in the NR) you will see a margin of $2.500/t for output of the CTL process. I guess these numbers correspond with Roy`s statements in the BNN interview and explain what is behind these numbers. In a nutshell I see a highly profitable business with numbers I haven`t seen before. Concerning the pay back period (4,5 years after tax) we have to wait till the release of the FS, because they include an initial ramp-up period, which duration we don`t know yet. But taking the calculated margin of $2.500/t into account and the capacity of 50.000t/ p.a. you will get an idea how long the pay back period is if the module runs 100%. And keep in mind this is the initial module, which is the most expensive one.... Only a first try to figure out the information of the NR and just my view. Do your own DD.