Twin Butte Energy Ltd TBTEF

The deal...rough numbers

[bshort92]

Happy Thanksgiving to the people of the great white north...great country made up of great people...seriously.The deal will go through quickly. TBE went from 256 to 342 million shares out. Peters gets 36 million shares of the 86 million added to finance the $70 million bought deal at $1.95 a share. The 72 million shares of Black Shire swapped at .697 equals the other 50 million shares being added to get to the present 342 million share float. TBE paid Black Shire $2 a share cash for their 72 million shares or $144 million plus they assumed $107.6 million of debt. Therefore TBE's debt would go from $188 million to $439.6 million but Peters bought deal drops that figure $70 million and thus once the presentation comes back up I suspect that the debt will be $370 million plus another $5 million to close the transaction. So a pro forma debt load $375 million on a firm generating $230 million plus of cash flow will mean that TBE's debt to cash flow will be about 1.63 times. Saunders and Steele might focus on marching that number to $345 million (1.5 X's)before we see a dividend increase but I think the plan will be to drill Provost and still drill horizontally at Wildmere, Frog Lake etc to push annual cash flow to $240 million and thus a $360 million debt load at 1.5 X's will be the rough model. Let's hope $100 WTI holds and differentials don't widen too much.Could be wrong but that's the way I see it going forward.