RE:SpudHi Drillblast,
Very diplomatically put ............... considering there are only about three of us on this board :- )))
I'm simply drawing conclusions from the (limited) facts that Vanoil have given us.
1. Their Financial statement (Managements discussion and analysis) up to June 30th 2013 on page 18 states they have thus far spent $6.2M on drilling costs. Page 17 states that they still had a little under $8M of cash and equivelents left in the bank. Thsy also have $19M left to realise on from residual Flourmin assets. So cashwise I believe they are ok.
2. Their investors presentation on slide 13 shows that at the $6.2M expenditure mark they should be set up and approx 500m down.
3. On july 13th a report on Kenyan KTN news reported a discovery by Vanoil. According to (2) above they should have been down to circ 1500m (circa 15 to 18 days into the drill). see "Garissa gold as oil is discovered in Modogashe" : -
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=garissa+oil&oq=garissa+oil&gs_l=youtube.3..35i39.4227.7246.0.7989.11.11.0.0.0.0.103.690.10j1.11.0...0.0...1ac.1.11.youtube.W82bgjlsVRI
This report was never denied nor even commented upon by Vanoil management
4. Two days later July 15th a report is made by Kenyan KBC news that Canadian firm Vanoil has halted drilling due to the locals kicking off with arguments over borders, land etc and who owns the rights to the oil. Suddenly the story has changed and apparently Vanoil are not going to spud until two months later.
NOTE:- The footage of the meeting in the first report on oil discovery is the same as that in the second report. Unless of course everyone was sat in the same seats and had'nt washed their clothes for three days. IE: The meeting that was filmed for the discovery of oil is the same footage for the meeting that now says Vanoil have halted drilling some two to three days later.
5. 30th July we find that the Kenyan Government has formed a new saecurity unit to protect Vanoil and Afren's assets in the NE of the country:-
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-29/kenya-forms-security-unit-to-guard-oil-assets-in-unstable-north.html
6. August 7th Vanoil provides an extremely vague update on the Madogashe well saying that they started drilling operations sometime before July 31st and have been asked to "slow down" drilling by the county government until the locals are pacified and adequate security is in place.
What does slow down mean? Why not just halt it?
So basically my take on it is that they are well into the drill and I reckon they may well have found oil but are being stifled from announcing it by the Kenyan government due to local tensionns and from fear for their own security. Of significance to me is that Vanoil have a) never denied or commented on the oil find report, b) have been very vague as to when they began drilling operations, c) used the terminology slowed down as opposed to halted drilling.
Worth a punt in my books but I am open to all considered interpretations of the above
time will tell ................
Best of luck with your investments
C