RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:SpudHi Kenya,
You said "
I'm not sure you can slow down a drill and keep a drill-rig at a slowed down daily rate, but yes, slow down the second drill".
That is exactly the point I was trying to make. We know that after the initial news report from KTN there was a lot of tribal bickering which it was feared would turn to violence. The easiest way to have quelled this would have been for Vanoil to have said either a) We have'nt started drilling yet or b) We are drilling but have not found any oil.
The one thing they cannot do however is lie by saying one of the above if as in the initial report, they have found oil. Investors, particularly those who sold out on the back of that information would sue the hell out of them.
As it was, Vanoil never commented or said anything at all.
What they could say to quell local tensions yet not give investors any grounds for complaint however is: "The government has asked us to slow down the drill." That short very vague sentence now gives them license to provide information when they want to.
You also said "
A junior must also Farm Down to limit risk". I
do not agree with this. Most Juniors farm out because they do not have the capital to complete a drill. Van
oil does have the capital for one well at present and then unless they find more cash from somewhere they will require to J/V. If they have oil however, can you imagine the terms of a farm out on a block with proven oil. The Tullow farm down to CNOOC and Total in Uganda will give you some idea of the premiums involved.
I do not believe Vanoil ever intended to farm out these blocks. They are well versed in obtaining
J/V's as they are partnered with both Ophir and Afren for their Seychelles and offshore Kenya concessions. Granted the risks are higher but so are the rewards. So then you have to look at the type of management that is running the company.
You mentioned Aaron D'Este, but he is not in my opinion the driving force behind Vanoil. You need to look to James Passin. From all I have read about him, Mr Passin is a very successful, bull headed risk taking entrepeneur who also happens to be a financial genius. He virtually owns the Mongolian Stock Exchange and also a hefty 41% of Vanoil via his Firebird fund. Thats quite a chunk when you think about it. In my mind he is just the sort of person who would go it alone for huge reward later down the line.
It's worth googling him but the link here gives you a taster with some interesting video clips in between:-
https://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-05-16/james-passin-the-american-who-bought-mongolia
All that said, please don't go putting money in and then blame me later on down the line if it all goes pear shaped. It's a risky investment and if you are not comfortable then stay away from it.
ATB
C