RE:Why isn't the GM lawsuit collection priced in?
It looks to me like the market is following liquidation value day by day. By my calculations, if they were to liquidate today, you'd be looking at a NAV below current share price. So there is actually a super conservative premium built in right now.
Something very bad/bizarre would have to happen between now and the conclusion of Ford contract to not eclipse this price by a good margin, but I also think it not prudent to put any value on the GM settlement until it actually happens. I saw a post on this board suggesting that the big Ford extension was a "slam dunk", and the share price of over $3 at the time showed that this view was shared by others. Did not happen!
I am optimistic of some measure of compensation from GM, but I'm not holding my breath or putting a value on it at this point. I simply think that based on the ford contract alone, this is a very safe investment at current SP.