RE:Well 2 resutls Hi Tommy, I am newer to Ithaca than you so this may not be accurate.
I give Stella 2-A an approximate 85% chance of success (CoS). But listen to some of the old timers here.
This is from July before the big surprise of the first well.
GSA and Alma/Galia - does the upside justify the risk?
Over the next 18 months production growth will depend on GSA for Ithaca and
Alma/Galia for EnQuest. Based on our analysis, the market gives full value for EnQuest’s producing assets and partially prices in upside from Alma/Galia. Ithaca Energy, on the other hand, trades below the value of its producing assets and any upside from GSA is not priced in. However, even if we assume that the current share price equals the value of the producing base (for both stocks), Ithaca’s GSA has higher unrisked upside (71%) than EnQuest’s Alma/Galia (29%). We note that in our valuation we risk both developments at 80% CoS and do not exercise any judgement over the quality of the assets or the management teams’ capabilities.
https://www.investorvillage.com/mbthread.asp?mb=12391&tid=12961930&showall=1