RE:RE:RE:Larsen6... I can't see $8 cash offerWell, probably a 1/3 of those shares are on margin from my house, so I am only a temporary owner :)
I note today that the stock is trying to break below $6.10, the recent issue price. Interestingly, $6.10 is the 50% retracement point between $6.50 where it topped, and $5.75, where it was before the recent announcement. I am nibbling back on some here.
Somebody asked me about my current $6.37 valuatoin. My model is built upon flowing barrels + risked NPV. Should the November reserves report show more oil per section, the NPV/well will go up, and the model will immediately show a higher price. Same for the February post Ante - Creek pipeline estimate of $7.70, this number would go up immediately too.
So to clarify, I would take $8/share cash now for sure; or as raggetjack suggests, maybe 1/3 of an ARX share. Not a bad idea.
Following the pipeline install, I would not take less than $9/share based on today's facts. Notwithstanding, the WTI price and spread need to quit going in the wrong direction. I am of the opinion that once the cold weather hits, this divergence will reverse a bit.
Larsen6