RE:LTS ArticleThis is the response I posted on the Seeking Alpha article you mention:
I am the biggest fan of LSTMF and have been posting on many forums about it (and have accumulated way too many shares of the firm), so I definitely want a short squeeze to happen.
My big stake clouds my judgment but I am still lucid enough to see some lingering issues:
#1: Why on earth don't they want to cut the dividend by half? At this point, it is clearly baked in the price. Bite the bullet and get over it. It would save them $100M a year of outflows and/or dilution equivalent through the DRIP. Making this whole "sustainability ratio" issue a non-issue.
# 2: No clear plan to reduce debt. Yes, they would like to reduce debt but they are barely free cash flow positive in a quarter where oil prices were at their highest in years. Q4 top and bottom line will already be worse with the widening spread again; they have lowered their forecast on operating cash flows as a consequence. So basically, the firm is barely FCF neutral, do not want to cut the dividend, and as such the ONLY way it can reduce debt is through an asset sale. But they remain coy about it. If they plan a big asset sale, then we are definitely back in business. However, everybody is talking about asset sales these days. Selling the Duvernay is the right move but who will buy? Maybe ECA?
# 3: No insider purchases. Yes, the NCIB (share repurchase program) is good and should be executed at these low prices. They are basically buying back great assets at rock bottom price. That should put the pressure on shorts who are circling. But it is slightly disturbing to see almost no insider buying over the past year as the stock has sank to multi-year lows. Can you imagine what it would do to the stock if top management where to commit one million each of open market purchases?!?
#4: Clarity on Trioil and Arcan. This has been a PR fiasco to say the least. Risk management it was the smart move: I.e. they had farmout deals with both and wanted to protect those relationships. Then the Polish firm comes in and scoops up Trioil for an incredibly low price and it seems we are going to let it go. A high price to pay for not having a flexible balance sheet to counterbid in my mind...
So, there are many catalysts around the corner but we are not there yet and I feel management is still seeking risk (not alpha) by having such a leveraged balance sheet. As soon as I see a clear path way to sustainable debt levels, I will be all in! GLTA!