Trilogy International Partners Inc T.TRL.WT.A

RE:RE:RE:and what will this week bring to affect the stock lower

[LTOWNER]

Tgtbtroi, I don't find the trading unusual at all; there are 148 million shares outstanding. Many investors may consider the current situation ideal for tax loss selling.  Waiting for reaction from the FDA and with the company itself now advising a partnership announcement unlikely before year end, this should be an opportunity to take the loss and safely wait 30 days to buy back, without fear of stock appreciation in the interim.  And for others the risk level after receiving questions from the FDA may have become intolerable.

 

Shareholders not willing to take a loss may hope the FDA may be satisfied with the written explanation and a meeting may not be required, and/or a partner may still step up, particularly since the FDA appears to have indicated that at the very least, Compleo TID will be approved.  Either of these events would provide a catalyst for the share price to rise substantially.

 

From Trimel's perspective they would obviously prefer both Compleo BID and TID be approved.  One of the big selling points competitively speaking will be convenience, and taking something twice a day is obviously easier than taking something three times a day, assuming therapeutic levels of Testosterone in the blood are achieved with both.

 

On that point, the FDA's preference, if that is what it really is, for TID is curious.  We heard in the conference call that between 30 - 35% of the BID group was titrated to TID.  That means 65% - 70% of the BID group must have reached acceptable T blood levels.  The response rate of Androgel, the leading competitor, is 52% - 62% and they are obviously long and well approved.  Lilly's approved product Axiron has a response rate between 67% - 89%.  What Trimel was trying to show with the small titrated group was that some of the patients who did not respond well BID would subsequently respond TID, where the response rate was called "strong".  But as management indicated, it is impossible to know exactly where the FDA requires more explanation.

 

The question from the FDA was announced October 24 after market close.  The biggest reaction selling - over 4 million shares - began the next day (see chart below).  In the first 7 days after the announcement approx. 7.7 million shares traded - 5% of the float.  One source pegs the current average daily volume for Trimel trades at 161,169, although with such huge fluctuations recently, this number is not terribly useful.  The Short Position at the end of October remains negligible at 5,766 shares, no change after the FDA announcement.

 

 

2013-11-11	T	TRL	0.41	0.43	0.41	0.41		25,167	20	0.41	0.425		22,167		1,500				1,000						500
2013-11-08	T	TRL	0.44	0.44	0.405	0.41	-0.01	40,856	32	0.41	0.42		26,856		9,500				4,500
2013-11-07	T	TRL	0.44	0.44	0.42	0.42	-0.005	77,120	35	0.42	0.435		53,120		19,000		3,000		2,000
2013-11-06	T	TRL	0.44	0.44	0.425	0.425		120,830	78	0.425	0.44		84,830		33,000		2,500		500
2013-11-05	T	TRL	0.405	0.445	0.40	0.425	0.015	251,725	115	0.425	0.43		179,725		50,500		8,000		12,500						500		500
2013-11-04	T	TRL	0.435	0.44	0.40	0.41	-0.01	913,653	183	0.41	0.42		876,153		30,500		1,000										6,000
2013-11-01	T	TRL	0.415	0.43	0.40	0.42	0.02	208,300	99	0.415	0.425		118,800		24,000		1,500		10,000						500		53,500
2013-10-31	T	TRL	0.41	0.415	0.39	0.40	-0.005	512,047	175	0.395	0.40		431,547		46,500		9,000		22,000								3,000
2013-10-30	T	TRL	0.465	0.465	0.405	0.405	-0.02	338,197	184	0.405	0.42		208,197		82,000		9,500		23,500						500		14,500
2013-10-29	T	TRL	0.465	0.475	0.42	0.425	-0.025	481,935	210	0.425	0.44		348,435		95,500		10,000		22,000		1,500						4,500
2013-10-28	T	TRL	0.42	0.475	0.38	0.45	0.045	1,197,020	552	0.44	0.455		769,520		297,000		70,500		28,500		10,500				10,500		10,500
2013-10-25	T	TRL	0.65	0.65	0.405	0.405	-0.345	4,058,053	1,100	0.405	0.41		2,639,553		888,000		347,000		112,000		66,500				1,000		4,000
2013-10-24	T	TRL	0.75	0.76	0.75	0.76		3,620	6	0.74	0.77		3,120		500
2013-10-23	T	TRL	0.75	0.77	0.73	0.75		47,420	37	0.75	0.76		42,420						5,000
2013-10-22	T	TRL	0.75	0.75	0.75	0.75	-0.01	1,000	4	0.74	0.78		1,000
2013-10-21	T	TRL	0.76	0.78	0.75	0.76	0.01	33,973	51	0.76	0.78		28,473		1,000		4,500
2013-10-18	T	TRL	0.73	0.76	0.70	0.75	0.02	46,849	84	0.74	0.77		44,849				1,000		1,000
2013-10-17	T	TRL	0.77	0.79	0.73	0.73	-0.03	59,664	104	0.73	0.78		49,664		10,000
2013-10-16	T	TRL	0.78	0.78	0.76	0.76	-0.04	1,600	5	0.76	0.79		1,600
2013-10-15	T	TRL	0.75	0.80	0.75	0.80		35,813	31	0.75	0.80		21,313		6,500		3,500		3,500		1,000
2013-10-11	T	TRL	0.80	0.80	0.80	0.80	0.02	2,000	2	0.75	0.80		1,500				500
2013-10-10	T	TRL	0.78	0.80	0.77	0.78	-0.01	30,850	20	0.78	0.80		28,850		2,000
2013-10-09	T	TRL	0.76	0.79	0.73	0.79	0.02	45,470	25	0.74	0.78		43,470				2,000
2013-10-08	T	TRL	0.80	0.80	0.77	0.78	-0.03	9,340	11	0.77	0.79		5,840		3,500
2013-10-07	T	TRL	0.77	0.80	0.77	0.80	0.03	18,157	14	0.77	0.82		16,657		1,000				500
2013-10-04	T	TRL	0.78	0.80	0.76	0.77	-0.03	81,875	40	0.77	0.79		78,875		500		2,000		500
2013-10-03	T	TRL	0.80	0.80	0.79	0.80	0.01	31,086	15	0.79	0.80		28,086				3,000
2013-10-02	T	TRL	0.80	0.80	0.78	0.79		13,300	14	0.78	0.79		12,300				1,000
2013-10-01	T	TRL	0.79	0.81	0.79	0.79	-0.03	71,301	41	0.77	0.79		59,801		1,000		10,500