GREY:FTPLF - Post by User
Comment by
Nbskon Nov 13, 2013 8:57pm
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Post# 21904039
RE:RE:estimate
RE:RE:estimate y390: this tembec combination was first suggested by Paul Quinn (forestry analyst) and then later on it was evoked by Chad himself during an interview. Interestingly, when Chad talked about it tembec was around a yearly low of 1.75 and thereafter started a march toward a high of 3.50... He nailed the bottom! Anyway, tembec settled around 2.50 with a market cap of 250m. Tembec has been focusing on specialty pulp which has fairly high and stable price with good margin, and power cogen. They have major capex going on to expand, some of it awaiting funding. Dissolving pulp such as Ftp produces is the first step toward specialty. Tembec needs cash to complete their expansions and cogen projects. Ftp happens to have good size cash on hand. Ftp needs cash flow to service debt and wait for the market turn. Tembec has cashflows. Ftp is right in tembec backyard. Ftp has a few former tembeckers aboard. Tembec could eventually turn LSQ into a specialty pulp mill. By adding ftp the become more of a pulp powerhouse and get two lucrative cogen sites and have a both ftp mills to eventually convert into "higher and better use" as demand grows. Combining both co would bring savings too in SG&A. Chad could retire and let experienced operators realize the value surfacing of what he has assembled thus far with all that wind in the face. Tembec has no monies to buy ftp but I guess that's what merger of equals are made for. The newco would have all the potential to benefit from the various pulps growth, the abundant resource in qc, the favorable hydro rates, with the financial strength to go thru adjustment period such as now.
This tax-loss selling brings out once again an incredible opportunity.
Incidently, m. Wasilenkoff will be around this week end in thurso, maybe a good time to meet m. Lopez ;-)
https://www.lapresse.ca/le-droit/economie/201311/08/01-4708861-le-grand-patron-de-fortress-a-thurso.php