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TAG Oil Ltd. V.TAO

Alternate Symbol(s):  TAOIF

TAG Oil Ltd. is an international oil and gas exploration company with a focus on operations and opportunities in the Middle East and North Africa. It holds an interest in the Badr Oil Field (BED-1), a 26,000-acre concession located in the Western Desert, Egypt, through a production services agreement (the PSA) with Badr Petroleum Company (BPCO). It is focused on BED-1 the re-completion and evaluation operations of the BED 1-7 vertical well. These initial operations are part of its phase I development program of Abu Roash F (ARF) reservoir in BED-1. The BED 1-7 well started oil production from the ARF reservoir. Its Field Development Plan (FDP), consisting of drilling 20 horizontal wells to be completed with multi-stage fracture stimulation, is focused on the east central part of the BED-1 concession area and contains OIIP P50 volumes of 178.3 million barrels and mean volumes of 179.0 million barrels. Its subsidiaries include TAG Energy International Ltd., CX Oil Limited, and others.


TSXV:TAO - Post by User

Bullboard Posts
Post by sololeoon Nov 19, 2013 11:38am
281 Views
Post# 21919229

Accuracy with information being posted, and other thoughts

Accuracy with information being posted, and other thoughtsBigshot...I don't really care if you want to annoy some on this board with your grand pronouncements while beating up the "!" key on your computer...but could you try to fact-check the information before you post?

The last time TAO bought back shares was NOT @ $3.26. They did buy 7,000 shares at that price on July 19th...but since then have bought 25,000 @$4.25-4.30 on September 6th, and another 1,500 shares @$4.25 on September 16th.

Given these most recent purchase prices under the normal course issuer bid, and given the current share price of TAO, it is disappointing to see the brokerage TAO designated to carry out its buybacks (i.e. Macquarie) not buying today but, rather selling....to the tune of ~25,000 so far. How much different might today's trading look if Macquarie had bought that much on behalf of TAO instead of selling it?

Also, since the announcement of the bought deal, Dundee of all the underwriters has done yeoman service trying to support the share price...picking up at least 10,000 shares today so far. The rest of the underwriters, unless they were operating under the cloak of "Anonymity", have been absent from the markets since the announcement of the bought deal...neither buying nor selling/shorting...until Mackie stepped up this morning to buy ~10,000 shares.

As for when this carnage ends, and the share price starts to rebound...it won't happen until Goldman stops selling/shorting. When they start buying/covering, then we may start to see the share price rise.

We are in a tough environment for TAO shares to rise in price: the major markets in the US have hit all-time highs recently which has some investors worried about a correction, speculation is that oil prices are ripe for a drop, we are in the midst of Tax Loss Selling Season (remember...TAO started the year @$5.81, rising to as high as $6.50 before the Apache pullout...and, since then has only got as high as $5.80; at current prices in the mid $3's, there are a lot of investors who could realize tax losses, and wait out their 30 days with the expectation that nothing will happen at TAO to spike the share price before they can get back in...not the least of which are those who picked up shares in the recent bought deal financing), we just had a disappointing quarterly results release with regard to production numbers and TAO management has indicated that some time will elapse before we can expect any news on Cardiff-3 or the East Coast...and, oh yeah, since the Apache pullout, TAO has become blood in the water to the sharks who like to short. These sharks don't care about the long-term ability of TAO management to build a profitable oil & gas company...they're only in it for the short-term trading opportunities to make some fast money, on the way up or on the way down.

Nevertheless, I personally remain cautiously optimistic about the medium- to long-term future prospects of TAO and its projects...it's just getting through the short-term that is proving to be a bit painful. Those of us investors who have been in TAO for a few years have ridden this share price rollercoaster more than once...it's a thrill ride that might be a bit too thrilling for some, but riding it out has proven to be quite profitable in the past.

In the end, though, it doesn't matter what I think about TAO and its future prospects...each investor has to do his/her own due diligence, use whatever methods they use (i.e. macro economics, fundamentals of the company, technical analysis, or some hybrid of the previous) decide what they can comfortably endure and still sleep at night...and based on that, buy, hold or sell their position in TAO.

GLTA to all...and, please, could we avoid name-calling and bullying just because someone uses different methods or has different opinions about TAO's situation, prospects and share price. We all benefit if investors are willing to bring information and (informed) opinions to this bullboard.
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