Norvarg would have been a nice bonus....but thats all!There is absoutely nothing in the NAV calculation for this exploration asset they inherited from Valiant. So if the appraisal well would have been a blockbuster that certainly would have been good upside but that is it. There should be zero downside impact.
All we need is another A1 with A2 and now that will drive the stock price. And with A2 the market should not be expecting another A1 but rather what is necessary for the projected production rate of 30 MBOEPD. An 8 MBOEPD A2 would be expected as necessary test to achieve the target production rate. Another ~11 MBOEPD would be unexpected upside and should serve as additional catalyst to move the share price up even more than an A2 on target.
If all four wells were flowing at 11 MBOEPD one would have to assume they could pump well over 40 MBOEPD if they wished which is 24.6 MBOEPD for Ithaca which of course would turn Ithaca into a $5-$6 stock immediately upon release of the initial production results.
So I trust that the market does not have too high expectations for A2 and be disappointed with 8K verses A1's 11K
The other factor to consider with A1 is that it maxed out the production flow test capability of the rig so it could have registered an even high flow rate test.
Another few weeks and we will know.