RE:RE:Some Stock Pressure TodayI went through some old posts and found the last time I whined about CIBC manipulating the stock. It was on June 26th, and CIBC were using some market nervousness to manipulate the stock down to $4.00. I bought stock fo junior at 4.16 around that time.
So here we are again:
1. We have market nervousness. Markets overall have had a good run this year, and some anticipate a pullback.
2. WTI has fallen due to increasing supply in North America. Pipelines are plugged, refineries are not equipped to handle large amounts of light oil, refineries are under repair and the spread between WTI and Edmonton sweet has increased.
2. CIBC/National are manipulating/selling the stock down. There may also be funds selling to look good at year end.
But there is hope:
1. WTI has bounced. Perhaps it is a dead cat bounce. The next couple of weeks will tell.
2. NYMEX gas now at $3.98, and AECO at $Cdn 3.54/GJ. Not bad at all. Let's remember that RMP produces quite a bit of gas.
2. Pipelines slowly unplugging. New southern Keystone line about to turn up in January. Rob Lauzon mentioned on BNN today that another Chicago to Cushing pipeine is also ready to turn up in 2014.
3. Governments have kept their mitts off the ever increasing rail volumes, and have not suddenly increased regulation on this method of transport.
4. $US still increasing in strength. This is good for a few percent on the RMP bottom line versus few months ago.
5. WTI - Edmonton Sweet spread has shrunk $5 in the last week. Again, this could be a dead cat bounce. We'll see.
6. Technically, the RMP graph looks eerily the same as it did in June. To raggetyjack's point a while back, we are forming another pennant formation. Time for a breakout.
7. New reserves study out in a few weeks time. Recoverable oil per well (hence NPV per well) is likely to increase from all hints dropped by RMP management in the last two presentations.
I believe that the risk/reward of buying at today's lows outweighs the downside.