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Newcrest Mining Ltd NCMGF


Primary Symbol: A.NCM

Newcrest Mining Limited is an Australia-based mining company. The Company's principal activities are exploration, mine development, mine operations and the sale of gold and gold/copper concentrate. The Company owns and operates a portfolio of brownfields and greenfields exploration projects. The Company’s assets include Brucejack, Cadia, Havieron, Lihir, Red Chris, Telfer and Wafi-Golpu. The Brucejack asset is located approximately 950 kilometers (km) from Vancouver, Canada. The Cadia asset is located approximately 25 km from Orange, New South Wales (NSW). The Havieron asset is located approximately 45 km east of Telfer. The Lihir asset is located on the Niolam Island, approximately 900 km from Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea (PNG). The Red Chris asset is located approximately 1,700 km from Vancouver, Canada. The Telfer asset is located approximately 400 km from Port Hedland, WA. The Wafi-Golpu asset is located approximately 65 km from the city of Lae, PNG.


ASX:NCM - Post by User

Bullboard Posts
Post by miningmanon Dec 16, 2013 4:13pm
313 Views
Post# 22011227

Going Forward

Going ForwardThere used to be a very effective rule of thumb that to decide an annual production rate........ and therefore start sizing the mill facility , one took the reserve and tried to mine it out in Seven years. Obviously one hoped that on going exploration kept it going longer , but that was way in the future. With the present 6.6 million tonnes, that implies an annual design production rate of 900,000 tonnes per year. Lets say that the revised 43-101 increases tonnage by 30%, we are potentially looking at 1.2 million tonnes per year. I have mined at over 2 million tpy but I would hate to try anything close to that with a gold orebody. Lets assume the designers settle for a 15 year life, or 1600 tons per day. I am not a milling guy but I doubt that such as sized facilty could be built today for much less than $200 million. Add to that the cost for developing the underground ready for production at that daily rate, say $60 million , add again say $50 million for permitting and environmental studies, say $30 million for roads and tailings ponds, and then add 50% contingency to cover all the associated overhead at site and Vancouver, design engineering, etc , and we are quickly at $500 million. Any short term funds from Cleo suddenly start to look like chickenfeed. I cant see PVG being able to raise that kind of coin without major dilution......... I am long this stock and would like to be proved wrong , but to me the best case scenario appears to be a 30% increase in reserves followed by a take out with a 30% premium which would be a stock price of $10. Not nice but perhaps explains some of the recent SP inaction.
Bullboard Posts