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U.S. foresees gas-powered vehicles dominating through 2040

• David Shepardson
• Detroit News Washington Bureau
• Comments

Washington — – The Energy Department is predicting gasoline-powered vehicles will continue to dominate the market through 2040.

The Energy Information Agency said in a report Tuesday that it also predicts a big rise in the fuel economy of the nation’s cars and trucks. It predicts the of the nation’s cars and trucks will rise from 21.5 mpg in 2012 to 37.2 mpg by 2040. Overall energy consumption by the nation’s transportation sector is expected to fall by about 4 percent.

The agency predicts that in 2040, 78 percent of all cars and trucks will run on gasoline, down from 82 percent last year. It predicts a big upswing in micro-hybrids and other advanced fuel technologies to 42 percent of all vehicles by 2040. EIA predicts full hybrids will account for 5 percent of vehicles in 2040 — up from 3 percent today. Diesel vehicles will double to 4 percent from the current 2 percent.

It predicts just 1 percent of total sales will be plug-in hybrids and 1 percent full electric vehicles in 2040.

In 2012, the Obama administration issued final rules to double the efficiency of new cars and trucks to 54.5 mpg by 2025 — though in real-world driving and after accounting for credits it will be around 40 . The Environmental Protection Agency said this month that the fuel efficiency of the nation’s 2012 model-year cars and trucks hit a record average of 23.6 miles per gallon and is on pace for 24 mpg for the 2013 model year.

Overall fuel economy rose by 1.2 mpg over the prior model year — the second-highest jump over the last 30 years — partly because vehicles are more thrifty with a , and partly because higher gas prices prompted a shift away from trucks and SUVs. The boost represented a hike of about 5 percent. Fuel efficiency has jumped 22 percent since the 2004 model year.

EIA is now predicting a 30 increase in vehicle miles traveled from 2012 through 2040, compared with a 41 percent increase it had predicted over that time frame last year.

The agency also predicts that when adjusted for inflation, the price of gasoline will rise to $3.90 by 2040, compared to a prior forecast of $4.40; it estimates diesel fuel will rise to $4.73 by 2040, down from $5.03 in its previous forecast.

From The Detroit News: https://www.detroitnews.com/article/20131217/AUTO01/312170108#ixzz2nvVQfVBm