RE:SCO PriceCOS is using US$ 90 for WTI, less a $5 discount for SCO and and an assumed C$ fx of .97. Doing the math that would mean that COS is budgeted ($90-$5)/.97 or C$87.62/ barrel of SCO for 2014.
If prices remain strong they couyld beat that by C$10-15/bo or $.50-75 in after tax cash flow per share on the oil price alone. If the C$ fx remains around .93 that would add another C$.20 per share in after tax cash flow per share. Using those assumptions, the guidance of $2.39/share of after tax cash flow could be between C$3.09 and C$3.24 per share.
Add in production upside potential of another ~C$.29/ share for every 20,000 bopd per day Syncrude produces over the assumed 280,000 barrels used in guidance and after tax cash flow increases further.
Lastly when capex drops to around $1/ share the possibility of a substantial increase in dividends is very attractive.