RMP Metrics - Looking Good
So some final tweaks to the RMP Christmas assumptions. Currently, here is what I am using:
1. Ante Creek - Waskahigan Pipeline operational March 1, 2014
2. Average of 9,800 boepd for period March 1 - Oct. 31 2014
3. Average 11,900 boepd for period Nov. 1 - Dec. 31 2014 - assuming the new Pembina main line is up on Nov. 1st. This boepd volume is conservative IMHO, and I am probably light on associated gas coming out of Ante Creek. Will work on this some more over the holidays.
4. Ave. 2014 WTI of $US 99, with average of $8.75 differential between WTI and Edtn sweet.
5. Ave. 2014 AECO Gas price of $3.74/GJ.
6. $13.5M NPV/successful well for original 6 section Ante Creek wells. This is conservative, as my model actually shows $15.2M at present. Have assigned $12.5M/successfull well for other North Ante Creek sections. South Ante Creek assigned value of $0 for all 5 sections.
7. $3.7M NPV/successful well for main 37 section block and for other 14 sections.
8. $2.8M NPV/successful well for 12.25 Waskahigan Grizzly sections. This will be very conservative if their recent theories about Ante Creek like formations in the Grizzly area pan out.
9. $75k/flowing barrel for oil.
10. Exit debt of $Cdn 106M per their 2014 capital plan.
11. 2014 Capital Spend - $130M per their 2014 capital plan.
There are other assumptions, but there are just too many to list here.
In any event, here are the metrics for 2014 as I see them:
1. Current Risked NAV -> $Cdn 1.007BN
2. Current Enterprise Value -> $Cdn 753M
3. Discount to Total NAV -> 25% (753/1007)
4. Cashflow -> $Cdn 158.8M
5. Risked NAV/diluted Share -> $Cdn 7.78. This is where I expect RMP to finish 2014.
6. Exit Debt/Cashflow -> 0.67
7. EV/DACF -> 4.74
8. Cost per boepd for Exit 2014 over Exit 2013 production -> $Cdn 29.5k
All things equal, I think that we will see $7 in March 2014.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all.
Larsen6