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Renegade Petroleum Ltd V.RPL



TSXV:RPL - Post by User

Comment by Seppelton Jan 06, 2014 11:01pm
440 Views
Post# 22064250

RE:RE:Institutional Summary

RE:RE:Institutional Summary"Wish I would have sold on the way down rather than bought :("
I thought about it so was considering selling in favour of a few other bargain stocks with some challenges here or there but at least steady management, low G&A cost and no time and money wasted on a proxy battle.

As I mentioned in my recent LTS post, I spend this weekend puting together some data based on Q3 results of about 15 O&G dividend paying companies.

Based on Price to FFO per Share, RPL has one of the lowest ratio, only second after LTS. However, based on EV/Boed, RPL is fairly priced at $62,600. I used rough numbers: $0.92 pps, 210 mil. shares, $281 million net debt and 7,600 boed production.

Unfortunately, unlike other larger companies, RPL doesn't have many non-core or non-producing assets that can reduce the debt while keeping production and cash flow unchanged.
I think, the latest $32.5 mil sale sale was neutral because it included mature producing assets. The best proof is market reaction: 92c to 93c and back to 92c.

I think, selling this company would be the best option which was the mandate of 'special committee' and the current chairman is part of it. Restoring the confidence and share price will require hard work and tough decisions... and good commodity prices.

In any event, I decided not to sell. I just hope that the stock will slightly recover after the special meeting is over and the dust settles. Long term, I hope the dividend will stay or at least will not be cut to zero. Otherwise, I am out at any cost.

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