RE:RE:RE:BUYERS COMING AFTER LUNCHWell thats still only 25% of Exxon; Its an even bigger number in SEK!
He sounded genuine though - been an o&g investor for 40 years and knew Lucus.
This is what he wrote - just interesting - not a ramp.
"Actually feel compelled to comment a little around Africa Oil, given what has happened recently. To begin, let me just say that I have approx. 40 years of experience in dealing with oil shares and especially exploration companies. I think then that I have little knowledge about this industry. Also met Adolf Lundin on numerous occasions in the 80's and we then had a lot of interesting discussions regarding oil exploration.
If we now take Africa Oil specifically so I thought about this for a couple of years ago to go into share around 7 - 8kr but never did it foolishly only because of fear of political problems in the region.
contrast, for exactly 1 year ago I bought myself in 50kr. Why then, you ask, because I judged the political risk that the same then. The trigger that I bought was mainly because I know and have always known it to 100% are vast amounts of oil in almost the whole area where AOIL have concessions because the land geologically look exactly the same there as it does in Saudi Arabia. It's just an extension of the same plate. I ignored since then, the political risk and bought anyway. But as time passed, I have re-evaluated this and concluded that the risk effectively does not exist. I'll explain why.What government than there are in each region whether it be a sitting or such opposition or even a military junta, so all these have in common that no one wants to ruin it for foreign companies and especially not the ones in the oil business. Should this occur, would all foreign capital vanish from the entire region and the whole of this area would then fall back to the Stone Age. Although there would be some smaller terrorist groups makes any attack or similar will immediately respective government to immediately fix such a problem.
Now back to how the market reacts to any discovery made. Sometimes I wonder if almost everyone who is in this share takes its decisions based on pure ignorance. I have in some ways been very happy with this and been able to buy me such large amounts of shares at each dip so that today I'm sitting gorged. If not all had overestimated the political risk would probably shares already trading around 150kr. WHERE HAVE YOU THEN STATEMENT OF COURSE NOT WHY IS HIGHER, YOU WHO DOUBT. I must also commend Daniel Bostrom fine analysis. He seems to know a lot more than most what this is about. I'm still stick their neck out and say my opinion on what the valuation should probably eventually end up alone with regard to what is in the ground. It would then be between 1000 - 2.000kr / share if we can make the whole trip and that none of the decision makers are selling off the company too cheaply."