oil futures
Vermada,
Your main point, that it is difficult to know what the future price of oil will be, is well taken, but the futures market does not, to my knowledge, work the way you suggest. You can put up the $5000. on margin and go long or short, but as far as I know you make no further payment, until the contract is settled. Now if your $5000. falls below the required margin requirements because the price of oil goes against you in a big price move, then you would be required to put in extra money to cover the margin or close out the contract at a loss. But if the price of oil just meanders within a tight range for a prolonged period of time, then you just wait it out until the final day of your contract and settle up then. There is no making money or losing money on a daily basis. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Lundu