RE:RE:RE:RE:I would sell all my Ithaca IF I could find a better prospectdbeaude, First a disclosure - I have managed many projects but not in oil/gas and nothing as complex as the FPF-1. However, I have a lot of experience delivering bespoke projects.
My thoughts:
When something unexpected impacts a project I can announce it on discovery or at the scheduled time of delivery - I prefer the former.
The board/customer always wants to know the reason
In this case the release points to the decision to install new rather than refurbished plant. It does not mention delays in part shipments or a change in specification.
I also wondered why they repeated old news in the context of the delay and decided that it was almost, but not quite, a lament on the decision to fit new,
Equate this to fitting a new kitchen into a clean space against fitting it into a used space - sometimes you comprimise and sometimes you move the pipes. In the case of the FPF-1 I guess a review of the programme prompted a change in plans. If the change was to accomodate increased flow rates I would be SHOUTING about it.
I always thought that first oil from GSA mid 2014 was vague, encompasing Q1 through Q3.
Would I plan for a North sea installation during the 2014 Q4 winter. No!
So while the schedule might say Q4 the salesmen will say mid 2014. Who knows?
I'm investing on the basis of a relable 16,000 (net to Ithaca) from GSA plus 10,000 from other 11+ fields and I'm happy to pay the cost of a few months delay in GSA. Consider that against the delays we now have with the Cook field. I'd guess that forms some of the background behind the board's "lament" on the new for refurbished decision repeated in the 8 Jan statement.
Other points:
I'm sure the board was aware of the confusion following the 8 Jan statement. I was pleased with the clarity and detail in yesterday's statement, if a little disappointed in some of the numbers.
I've sailed in the North Sea and knowing the aweful conditions during December I think the rig team did a great job to bring in A2 when they did.
These are my first posts to this board, but I've followed it for some time, so my thanks to the many well informed contributors.