The possibility of a takeover, Its not gonna be Pala IMHOWe are definitely at risk of a pre-mature takeover by an opportunistic miner as we are currently trading below book value.
It brings to mind the Goldcorp and Osisko situation recently in the news.(Goldcorp's intial Osisko bid was not much over book, much to Osisko director's chagrin)
In general, I think the Canadian equity market is pretty overvalued at present with a few exceptions and ripe for a correction. NCU is one of the very few Canadian names I own.
There are still good value stocks to be had in the US. AIG (especially the AIG tarp warrants) and BAC still have lots of upside and trade under BV. For the more adventurous, there are some really cheap Chinese companies with loads of cash trading at PEG's well under 1...but these come with possible accounting issues...I digress..
If you are a contrarian, the senior gold miners (anywhere) offers tremendous value. They have really been beaten down. So my thinking is...buy the trough, and get paid dividends for holding until POG recovers.
Of course copper plays are also attractive at this point if you are prepared to buy cheap bargains and hold them. FCX and NCU have been my top picks. Freeport will be less volatile of the two, since it is now exposed to the oil sector, and not just copper+gold. Like Nevada Copper, it too has had its share of political uncertainty, particularly with respect to Indonesia's initial aim to ban all ore exports and have it refined locally instead. They recently changed their tune, and FCX will be allowed to export copper concentrate from Grasberg and that is a big positive which reduces the uncertainty. With NCU, I do think, like other posters, that the land bill will eventually be passed in both houses. I am expecting to hear something in the next quarter, but I do not profess to be a fortune teller, particularly when it involves second guessing US politicians.
I personally don't believe Pala would take a run at NCU. I believe they hold NCU as an investment only, and do not have the capability, nor inclination to own us in an operational sense. They own pieces of a lot of mining companies and tend to provide sources of early financing etc. That is their business--not actually mining ore. To take a run at NCU, would wreck their main business. Who would want to partner up with them in the future? No one.
If NCU did have extra cash to spare, (too bad they blew some of it on Mercator) it would make good sense to buy back shares at this point. Existing shareholders (including Pala) would really benefit from this scenario in the long term.
Anyway--thats my two bits worth.
thomsoni