RE:My interpretationI have worked in the airline industry and watched Air Canada go in to CCAA several times. Unlike going bankrupt, it essentially allows them to push off all its long term obligations for a period of time while not impacting the on-going operations of the company. This type of restructuring is not as easy as some on this board think it is; it involves many different parties with many ups and downs as potential puzzle pieces come together and fall apart.
This forbearance agreement was probably signed late yesterday because they were trying to pull together something more complicated (ie the CCAA application, negotiations with the TSX etc.) but could not get it done in time. I don't think this is bad news as it has advanced the time period. The Company likely did not make the payment as they are attempting to substantially renegotiate these options and if you go in to CCAA, you don't need to make any at all.
No one, including senior management, want to see the equity holders wiped out. The residual surplus of the assets over debt indicate that, even excluding the on-going business, indicate there will be after a CCAA filing. Good work by those finding past precedents as well.
For those looking for company comments, obviously a material event is going on currently so don't expect any commentary from anyone with inside knowledge of the company.
Anyone in this company at this point is either (1) well aware it is a lottery ticket and probably didn't go in to it with anything they couldn't afford to lose 100% on or (2) should have sold out ages ago when it went by a stop loss from their initial investment. This is like poker; at this price you have some pretty good pot odds - probably 4-5x your money with the risk you lose it all. As long as this is mad money for you, I like those odds. I could be wrong and it could be an interplanetary takeover but we'll just have to see it play out. I am glad my stake is small enough that I don't feel the need to vent emotionally here; with luck, this is a great lesson for those that are.