RE:RE:News!First, I am no expert and have no experience in fracking.
However, based on my reading of the presentations, my conceptual model is as follows:
Note that the drilling of COV-x2 including the taking of core plugs that were analyzed in a lab in USA. We never heard the results of those analyses as far as I know. But it seems like we would not have fracked a formation unless we knew there was oil there before hand.
However, the oil could be held in place by layers of either clay, or carbonate, which if you attempt to frack, will not "break" since the clay is not brittle, and the carbonate is like chalk, and is somewhat brittle (e.g., limestone). So when you set off an explosion, you just get a big THUD, and no brittle fracture releasing the oil from the formation.
However, if the formation is quartz (glass beads) that are brittle, then an underground explosion (frack) will crack the glass beads. If the quartz (glass beads) hold oil, then a good explosion willh frack the glass beads and the oil will flow, since each bead has a small amount of oil encased by the glass bead.
So if you just drill a hole down into the beads, you are not breaking the beads other than in the bore hole, and therefore the oil will not flow. However, if you cause an underground explosion, causing the beads to crack, then the oil will flow.
If you produce the explosion with water and sand, then the sand works its way into the cracks and holds the cracks open. That way, you have a set of broken beads and a path for the oil in to be squeezed out into the bore hole.
If you look at the January 2012 Azabache presentation (which is not on on the web site anymore, but I have it saved on my computer) on slide 20, it shows the range of fracabililty as a function of the brittleness of the formation. Obviously, clay and carbonate are not as fracable, and will simply re-plug the oil flow. But quartz is breakable, just drop a glass on concrete and watch it shatter.
So what we are very much looking for is: 1) that indeed oil is contained the formation, and 2) the fomation is a frackable formation.
The news release says that "The operation achieved its primary objective of proving that oil can be liberated from the Vaca Muerta formation, which is consistent with previous studies (i.e., core bores) conducted by the Company's consultants on the Block." That means to me that there is oil that has been liberated. Now we need to know how much. But first, we have to get the fracking water out, and then hopefully, there is oil behind the water. I imagine that they have already gotten some oil contamination in the water.
The AZA news release says that our "fracs" at the base of the VM are not fracking very well, but the middle and upper zones are fracking to a length of about 150 meters to roughly 300 meters. That's a crack a length of 1/10th of a mile, to nearly a quarter mile long. I think that's a pretty good crack. So to me, that means that that we have a very frackable formation. Now we need to wait and see if the formation truly holds adequate quantities of oil, because if it does, it should flow.