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Post by
farml1234on Feb 13, 2014 11:57am
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Post# 22205166
oil market getting tighter
oil market getting tighter IEA Oil Inventories "Plummented" in DEC.
Highlights of the latest OMR
dated: 13th February 2014
- Oil markets rallied in mid-January as bitterly cold weather in the US pushed up demand for heating fuels, but on average benchmark prices weakened month-on-month (m-o-m). Upcoming seasonal refinery maintenance later put downward pressure on markets before prices rebounded in early February, with ICE Brent futures last trading at $109.25/bbl and NYMEX WTI at $101.25/bbl.
- Total OECD industry stocks plummeted by a further 56.8 mb in December, taking 4Q13 OECD stock draws to 1.5 mb/d, the steepest quarterly decline since 4Q99. At 2 559 mb, total OECD oil stocks stood 103 mb below their five year average at the end of December, while product stocks covered 28.8 days of forward demand.
- Global supplies fell by 290 kb/d in January, to 92.1 mb/d, on lower non-OPEC output. Supplies were up 1.50 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), however, as steep growth of 1.90 mb/d in non‐OPEC output and OPEC NGLs surpassed a drop of 390 kb/d in OPEC crude production. Forecast non-OPEC supply growth for 2014 is unchanged at 1.7 mb/d.
- OPEC crude oil supply rose marginally in January, by 85 kb/d, to 29.99 mb/d, with a downturn in production from Iraq offset by a partial recovery in Libyan output. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ is unchanged at 29 mb/d for 1Q14 but has been raised by 0.2 mb for the remainder of the year on higher forecast demand.
- OECD oil demand growth rebounded in 2H13, but non-OECD countries still accounted for more than 90% of global growth of 1.2 mb/d for 2013 as a whole, and will make up all of the 1.3 mb/d increase forecast for 2014, as the OECD resumes its structural decline. Demand growth is expected to accelerate in 2014 in line with the broader economy.
- Global refinery crude runs are set to fall by 2.8 mb/d from December through April on seasonal plant maintenance. Global throughputs are nevertheless set to grow by 1.1 mb/d y-o-y in 1Q14 to average 76.6 mb/d, led by the US, China, Russia and the Middle East. Plummeting European runs led global throughputs to contract in 4Q13.