reality checkIn the past, I was very very bullish on this stock. I thought management has been doing everything right. It is unfortunate that we have been dealt the cards we have like belaruskali and uralkali breaking and the potash prices tumbling. Right now, I think we all need to look at this as a reality check. The "pumpers" of this board say how transformational this news is. They are right. It is transformational to ICL, and Ethiopia. It is NOT however transformational to existing shareholders. The people who pay management's salaries. The proof is in the pudding. If it was so transformational for shareholders, then why did the stock price dive? Institutions would jump all over this if it was a great deal at these levels. Something of this news, the stock price should have jumped to 70 or 80 cents. The reason why it did not and it went down is because it is NOT a good deal even at these levels because there still is MUCH UNCERTAINTY to how much return our shares can have. How much more dillution? what is the discount on the price of potash that ICL will get for free? (courtesy of us giving it to them). Also, this is the first time that management has dissapointed me. WHAT WOULD HAVE BEEN A GOOD DEAL FOR BOTH? I understand that when you start "exclusive" negotiations, you can use around that shareprice as your base. I am fine with the .47 pp. Keep in mind that the shareprice was over .50 and they claimed a large premium and it still did not get to our current trading price. I feel as though they could have went to .50 or .51. It would have been psycologically more sound as we all know the markets are that way, and it would not have been much more for ICL. Historically, still a great deal for them. Also, I would have the offtake at a small to medium discount, with after 5 years of full production, the discount gets reduced. I don't think people realise this as well be WE ALSO helped ICL. If this is a "partnership" why did we essentially give half our company away when we took all of the risk. AND we are still not done dillution. We will be lucky to get 20% by the time this is done. You think that is fair for the existing shareholders who have took on all of the risk to get this company to where it is now? I find it funny when Farhad talked about the shareholders how it will bring good value to existing shareholders.. so we get 20%? This is why the stock did not go up. Its reality. They are trying to spin this all as a positive when it is actually a fairly big negative for people who have been in this, keeping the shareprice as high as it has been. If existing shareholders would have all sold, farhad and team would be out of jobs. This is where it gets frustrating to me because I just see this announcement as a huge lie and a farce, just waiting for the next big dillution to come and management will say " oh look we did get the financing and we will be building a mine!" Wow great! but at what cost to the people who have believed in them and held onto their shares and helped boost the shareprice and gave them their jobs and took virtually all of the risk.. 20%. WOW. I find it also funny that analysts have all said on the cc wow great job etc.. this is transformational.. but yet that was just to their face. Now, I will say something positive about this stock.. It still has potential, but not nearly as much as before this deal. What would help the stock price the most is "hopefully" not much more dillution and the potash price going back up to 400 by next year. I just have lost alot of faith in management, they are working more on their resume of accomplishments of building this mine than shareholders. I still own a bunch of shares of allana, but from now on, its going to be much more day trading than holding long. If I would have had that strategy before, I would have made alot of money on this stock. Sorry to all of the longs as I used to be one, and may switch back, but management has alot of proving to do that they can bring value to EXISTING shareholders.
have a great weekend everyone!