FWIWFor those interested in the numbers:
Up to the close of trading on Friday February 14th (i.e. all the trading in February that occurred BEFORE TAO’s 3Q FY2014 financials were released), 1,679,673 TAO shares traded. Of that amount, TAO bought back through its NCIB 86,000 shares, or 5.12%.
In the 3 trading days since the release of 3Q results, a further 1,317,903 TAO shares have traded, of which 125,000 (or 9.48%) have been TAO buying back through the NCIB.
In that first two weeks of February, the number of short positions INCREASED by 70,445…in other words, 4.19% of the shares traded were being shorted.
It will be very interesting to see, in two weeks time when the next short position report is made public, whether the 3Q results have the market covering their short positions or increasing them.
For those who view everything TAO does or says through rose coloured glasses, something to consider:
In TAO’s MD&A that accompanied the 3Q results, TAO says “For clarity, any BOE’s produced during the period East West is recovering their initial investment is treated as 100% production to EWP and subsequent to payback being complete, East West will return to a 30% interest. The strong performance from the E-site wells to date indicate the cost-recovery will be completed by mid-February which will result in the Company’s net daily production increasing by approximately 500 BOE’s per day.” (Pg. 01-02)
However, in East West’s news release of 18 February, they say “East West expects to have recovered the $5-million in revenue by the end of first quarter 2014.”, which is potentially a six week discrepancy…and which could mean that TAO does not show any of the E-site wells’ production on its books when full year results are reported in May…which would mean unchanged production numbers at best or, more likely, further declines.
It’s all well and good to believe / hope that TAO’s prediction comes through (meaning that $5-million should be paid off about….now), but what do you think the market’s reaction will be if East West’s prediction proves more accurate?
In the meantime, TAO could keep the market and its investors better informed with material information about production and testing (of Cardiff-3 and Ngapaeruru-1) rather than about dinosaurs.