fast money mistake
I continue to read about this co with interest. While it doesn't currently meet my metrics for most sectors, I admit biotech small caps are different. The one thing I am sure of is that companies with a high short term beta, like this one, attract a lot of dice rollers, and I'll just say the only people that accurately predict short term turning points are insiders.
In my experience, the short term players lose out more often than they win. There are some very good reasons why this company may win in the medium to long term, but given that they have no profit and virtually no book value (unless I am remembering incorrectly), the short term downside to a delay in a program, trial safety issues in a trial, etc..., is huge! Some of their near term "expected" success is already factored into the price.
On the other hand, for those who can hang on through such gyrations, the market response to big news (like success at the end of a pivotal trial) is probably going to be higher than some people here are forecasting...but you might have to wait quite a while and watch a roller coaster (both up and down in the meantime). Recent joiners are not used to those inevitable "downs".
What I find really useful in a group like this is a discussion of the science behind it all and what is happening with the target market and competitors.
Just a thought from someone who has been through the biotech wringer more than once.