India contract: next big catalyst India contract: next big catalyst
The next big catalyst for POT will be a contract with India. Although the China contract has set the potential price floor, uncertainty remains around the timing and pricing of the Indian contract. MOS expects Canpotex to sign the India contract by the end of April. Despite most analysts and investors focusing on the pricing implication, it is important to stress here that the volume number has much broader implications. The more optimistic analysts and companies including MOS are expecting a material rebound in year-over-year Indian volumes. However, any implied volume number below 4 million tons would make achieving industry volumes above 56 million tons quite difficult, particularly as recent contracts with China were signed at flat year-over-year levels.