GREY:NEVDQ - Post by User
Comment by
thomsonion Mar 01, 2014 4:03pm
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Post# 22268568
RE:The Augusta non factor
RE:The Augusta non factorHi materialsgal The other way to look at NCU value is to look at the Net Present Value..the intrinsic value of the business. I chose the 8% discount factor numbers and the lower $2.75 copper case. (probably what the buyer would look at) The underground mine NPV disc 8% is $201,000,000 The Open pit mine NPV disc 8% is 726,000,000 for a total of $927,000,000 I would use the fully diluted share number of 87.9my shares (includes the options) This results in an NPV of $10.54 per share. This means the buyer could pay $10.54/SHR and get an 8% return on his money....probably not enough to justify this bid level. Lets say the buyer pays 75% of NPV This gives you a takeout price of .75*10.54=$7.90 If they pay 50%NPV, you still get at takeout price of about 5 bucks a share.... Note this will not include the inferred resources. (upside/bluesky potential), nor will it include the value of NCU's Mercator stake...again more upside/bluesky potential) Pala's average cost is 2.95 (I figured this out from their sedi filings, and assumed $3 bucks a share for their initial ~5my shares (for which a price wasn't available) I think Pala could put us "in play" with an opening offer of say $4.50 (after permits are received), with their real plan to be taken out by some other bidder in the $5-6-7 range. Machievellian of me aye? Anyway--that's what I figure NCU will go for--$5-7 bucks...no more. This won't play out until the land bill passes and permitting is in place with the timing being controlled by Pala and our management.