RE:Help me out! Gold testing it´s 200MA and bouncing back up towards US$1,345.00 followed by a sell off creating a short-term low last Friday around US$1,320.00.
But due to escalation in Ukraine Gold is strongly up this morning and it looks like it could move on towards US$1,422 without looking back if we close above 1354-1355 and then 1372.
The situation is really tricky as CoT, Seasonality, Sentiment and a couple of other indicators point towards lower prices until end or march.
But should Gold move again below US$1,3200.00 in the next couple of days I think a short-term top is established.
If instead Gold manages to close above US$1,354-1355 odds favor a continuation of the rally towards 1372 and potentially 1422. In the current market environment everything is possible and the probability for rising gold prices despite any technical setups is strongly increasing (safe haven buying). As long as there is no peaceful diplomatic solution in the Ukraine but warmongers blaming each other I think Gold will move to US$1,422.00 rather fast if the upside is elected.
Traders should tighten up their stops to around US$1,300.00 on any long position and be very careful here. The market should tell us soon if Gold indeed can continue to rally or if an expected correction below US$1,300.00 is going to take place.
In summary, the situation in Ukraine has clearly been a jolt to the market and technical targets would favor towards 1372-1380 if we close above 1355