Birchcliff Energy Ltd T.BIR

But will it turn out this way???

[fergus2]

Canadian Observer - Alberta storage injections may follow similar pattern to 2011

Alberta storage inventory levels are at 166.9 Bcf, 91.5 Bcf below the five-year average. The last time inventory in Alberta dipped this low was ...in 2011, when volume were at 168.2 Bcf for the March 6 gas day. In 2011, before injection season began, inventory levels in Alberta ended the winter season at 154.9 Bcf. Over the course of the 2011 summer season, injections in Alberta came in at a record high injection rate of 1.2 Bcf/d, returning stocks to the historical average of 428.1 Bcf. In 2014, storage in Alberta should be able to refill to near-normal levels by the end of summer and depending the implied fixed price, storage should follow the same monthly average refill pattern as 2011. Looking at the forward AECO curve and NYMEX summer 2014, the implied fixed price averages out to $4.17 and the winter 2014/2015 stands at an average of $4.31. The summer-winter spread is currently at $0.15, which is economically challenging for an aggressive refill of storage inventories. In addition, the summer-winter spread is heavily weighted to April, which is about $0.15 above the May-October average. That being said, April 2014 injections are likely to be below the 1.1-Bcf/d summer average. But injections are likely to strengthen to the later summer months, similar to the 2011 pattern. For more on the storage issue in Alberta see page 2 of the March 4 Canadian Weekly Observer.less

3/6/2014 | 5:57 AM