RE:RE:RE:RE:disproportional reaction pm1231,
$4 target, when?
I don't do time projections and I am not predicting $4.
Just saying that it's a target / magnet.
I look for horizontal support and resistance levels.
Take a look at a 7 year weekly chart.
The low closes in late 2007 and mid 2008 were 4.11 and 4.16.
Off the 2008 bottom, the spike closing highs in late October / early November were 4.20 and 3.99
After the double bottom, the first impulse wave ended around 4.50.
The correction low closes were 3.85 and 4.05.
I don't use level 2 data - may be important to day traders but means nothing to long term investors.
That 4.90 support may seem solid on a 5 or 10 minute chart, but it means didley squat on a weekly or monthly chart.
other methods - Weekly Chart
A - B - C correction where A = C
2013 top - approx 9.50
October bottom - 6.00
January retracement high - 7.50
A = 9.50 - 6.00
= 3.5
C Low = 7.5 - 3.5
= 4
2008 - 2013, 5 waves up
9.50 - 2.50 = 7
7 X 0.75 = 5.25
9.50 - 5.25 = 4.25
75% is a common Elliott retracement (much more important than 61.8%)
For volume patterns, I developed my own indicator to measure on balance volume, accumulation / distribution, and money flow.
The directional changes for this indicator precede or coincide with price movements.
On the monthly chart, the indicator reversed as of the end of May 2013 - still headed south.
On the weekly chart the volume indicator bottomed in November 2013, made a lower low in February and is again about to make a lower low this week (confirmation of a continuing trend).
The "hope" is on the daily chart.
The low for this indicator in February was higher than the January low and it was approaching zero just before last Friday's bombshell announcement.
Depending on action over the next several weeks, the daily indicator may bottom at a higher level than in January.
If so, the positive divergence (new low in price but no new low on the volume indicator) would suggest that a playable rally could be forthcoming.
Although the Board sets the dividend, they do so based on a recommendation from senior management.
If they reject Management's recommendation, then the situation could be characterized by the famous NASA phrase, "Houston, we have a problem."
Right now, there is too much uncertainty.
Since I don't have a position, there is no need to be the hero attempting to catch a falling knife.
Could end up being road kill very shortly thereafter.
Better to wait at least until the daily chart indicates some stability.
So far, we have had three consecutive days of lower lows and lower closes.
And today, it looks like we are headed for a fourth.
The street likes, no, loves to pile up the score (in both directions). They have no mercy for the losing side.
That's how you get overbought and oversold extremes.