RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:The executives here need to be shown the doorI'm basing my numbers on the Edion report that was posted here. The rate can increase from 8% to 32.6% - a $26/bbl increase (see quote below). That would take netbacks from $77 to ~$51. I saw below $50 in another report, likely because they assumed Brent would decline as well. We can probably assume $50 given current Brent prices and no transport improvements.
Keep in mind that they are cash taxable right now, so an increase in royalty rates would reduce taxes paid as well.
If LM accounts for 2/3 of production at the end of the year, we will make a ton of money - the market is pricing in a decline and no exploration success.
Quote:
Royalty expenses in Colombia are paid in kind and are made up of a fixed rate of 8%, plus an x-factor, which varies depending on the contract terms of the block. Parex has a 1% x-factor on blocks LLA 16, 20, 29, 30, 57, 17, 32, 34, 40 and VMM-11. The Las Maracas, Cabrestero and El Eden blocks have an 8% royalty rate without an additional x-factor. Other royalties are based on volumes, where monthly production averages in excess of 5,000b/d increase the royalty rate by 1% for each incremental 10,000b/d of production per field. The result of all of this is an average 9% royalty rate for most medium-sized fields in the first three years of production.
Finally, and potentially most impactful, are high price royalties that kick in once accumulated production exceeds 5mmbbl. Increases in royalties can rise by 15.8%, to a new rate of 32.6%. Both Kona (5.0mmbbl production threshold reached in Q113) and Las Maracas (expected 5.0mmbbl in Q214) will be exposed to high price royalties in 2014.