QuebecFor all of the posturing and political rhetoric involved in the Quebec sovereignty movement there are some strong disincentives for Quebec to NOT break off from Canada. First, let's ignore the constitutional law arguments of whether or not Que. can unilaterally separate (that involves an amendment of the constitution and there is a complex formula for that), but accept the fact that a significant portion of the Que. population has a separatist mentality. I see an upside to the rest of Canada, should Que. separate. Within the nation of Canada, Que. is a net debtor and has been draining transfer payments from the rest of Canada (in essence acting as a third world nation debtor from the rest of Canada). The primary contributors have been Alberta, B.C., and Ontario - these are fiscal facts that can be verified, but you can look them up yourself. So, the rest of Canada would be better off, economic-wise if Que. left. Que. international credit rating would be quite low and it would be difficult and expensive for them to finance its economy. As it has proven to be a net debtor, there is no reason to believe that it would suddenly change its work ethic and spending habits to become fiscally positive. Investment and money would flee la bell Province as well. This would further create a drain on Que.'s economy. This money would likely locate in Alberta or Ontario. We have seen many corporate headquarters relocate from Montreal to Calgary in the past when Que. sovereignty gets a little testy. And who is going to pay the pensions for all of those Bloc Quebec (federal separatist party) members of parliament? Who will pay the Canada Pension Plan and old age security of retired Quebecers. Many Quebecers will move out of Quebec for these reasons alone. I am assuming the Canadian government, if it had the guts, would stop paying these payments to a secessionist people. Quebecers would need to obtain recognition as a sovereign nation at the U.N. Without this, I don't see the Que. "nation" doing well on the international scale, including its economy. How would Quebecers travel across Canada without a passport? What kind of currency would it have? I have spoken with some Americans and they have said that should Que. ever secede, they would not be interested in having Que. join the U.S. To paraphrase, "you've got enough problems with them, why would we ant your problems?" It would cause the rest of Canada some problems, and the geographic discontinuity between the maritime provinces and the rest of Canada is a significant challenge, but there are always costs to be paid. I think, at worst, Canada will be okay without Quebec, but I don't see them actually separating. They have it too good as a member of this great country. I think that it is actually health for Quebecers to be able to vent their separatist feelings as this prevents the fomentation of domestic turmoil which can manifest as terrorism, such as in the "Quiet Revolution" of the 1950's to 1970's. I would also submit that the U.S. government would send strong messages to both the international community and to influential Quebecers (behind the scenes or cryptic warnings in the media) that such instability would not be tolerated so close to American borders. Who knows what the outcome of such a separatist movement might be and what responses our American neighbors might have? So, my conclusion to this is: if Quebec stays within Canada, things will progress as usual and if it does separate, I see that there will be short term dislocation; however, in the end, the remaining Canada will actually be more prosperous. My reasoning, and it is one man's opinion, is that Canada has negative, or dysfunctional, synergies with Quebec. If Quebec leaves, then this dysfunction is removed and the rest of Canada can operate more efficiently without this distraction of separatism and the net drain of fiscal transfer payments. We will hold onto the Maritimes and they will hold onto us. In conclusion, to make this real life-like; if your 16 year old teen ager is always asking you for money and threatens to leave home if he/she doesn't get it - either they learn to become a contributing member of the family, or they can simply leave. A few tears will be shed, but hey, nations evolve, must evolve. I believe it was Toynbee who wrote on the rise and fall of nations. have a good night. Norbu