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Invesco Water Resources ETF T.PHO


Primary Symbol: PHO

The investment seeks to track the investment results (before fees and expenses) of the NASDAQ OMX US Water IndexSM (the underlying index). The fund generally will invest at least 90% of its total assets in the securities that comprise the underlying index. The underlying index seeks to track the performance of companies that create products designed to conserve and purify water for homes, businesses and industries. The underlying index may include common stocks, ordinary shares, American depositary receipts (ADRs), shares of beneficial interest and tracking stocks. The fund is non-diversified.


NDAQ:PHO - Post by User

Bullboard Posts
Post by blackwood2002on Mar 19, 2014 10:02am
212 Views
Post# 22340291

Analysis of future growth & possibilities of the SP

Analysis of future growth & possibilities of the SPPatience will soon be rewarded now the company has proved it can compete in the market and provide strong upward momentum. The 2013F will be very telling ..I took the liberty of doing an analysis based on past earnings and extrapolated this into future earnings for a fun exercise. Here is a look at the past number of Qtr's growth and "projected" based only on revenue/earnings growth rates & margin .. 

                       revenue                     earnings

Q4/12               2109                            193   
Q1/13               2784                            402
Q2/13               3652                            744
Q3/13               4575                           1220
Q4/13               5901                            1770
Q1/14               7671                            1994
Q2/14               9972                             2592
Q3/14               12963                          3370
Q4/14               16851                         4381

Now this is based on Qtr/Qtr earnings growth of 30% on average  with a 26% margin growth on that revenue. Those numbers are based on the past 5 qtrs growth  (really eaperienced) . This is a simple extrapolation and not to be considered a realistic analysis of the company's growth trajectory. However, that said it's not out of the realm of possibility and in fact quite achievable. If so, it would represent earnings in 2014 of $0.12/PS and at 14X earnings PE (semiconductor industry average is 22) that would give us a valuation of $1.68! Even if they achieved 1/2 of that growth trajectory at the same PE multiple it would be $0.86 a share valuation. Unless we have a major negative market event which knocks revenue down in all of their markets..(oil & gas, medical, semiconductor, etc...) at the same time I don’t see how they cannot archive target revenue & earnings in the range assumed above. Its exciting to see the possibilities and when the greater investment community takes notice we are in for a nice ride. I gather the comments regarding engagement with the brokerage houses and continued communication with them it's just a matter of time before we see this stock take off. 

GLTA!!



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